[車市分析] Cautious optimism continues

New car market sales analysis in January 2022

According to statistics, the number of new vehicles listed in the domestic new car market in January this year was 40,623, a slight increase of 0.8% from the previous month (December 2021), but a sharp drop of 20.6% from January last year (2021) (more than 1/5 ratio!), the number of domestic and imported cars listed is 22,754 and 17,869, accounting for 56:44.

Pandemic leads to second-lowest monthly performance in a decade

According to the statistics of the General Administration of Highways of the Ministry of Communications, the number of vehicle licenses inquired, January 2022 can be said to be the second-lowest number of licenses in the past ten years (2013-2022), which is only slightly higher than that of January 2020. In addition to being affected by the first wave of the epidemic in January 2020, the same period last year was the only reason for the 50,000-vehicle threshold to be listed in the same period last year, except that last year was originally the deadline for the government's old-for-new subsidy. Due to the negative impact on the people's livelihood economy, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Affairs decided to postpone the old-for-new subsidy for five years (until the end of January 2027). In addition to being affected by the global spread of the Omicron variant virus in January 2022, although domestic prevention and control are properly implemented, domestic cars seem to be affected less seriously than imported cars, but due to the impact of the epidemic and the unstable supply of components and production chains, although traditionally The month of January is before the lunar calendar, which can be said to be the peak of the annual auto market consumption. However, it was somewhat affected at the beginning of this year. In addition, the chip shortage is expected to last for at least two years. The popularity of ADAS and Level 2 semi-automatic are increased as standard in new cars. The driving system has also hit a new market share peak, and the Russian-Ukrainian war is still full of variables, which will have an impact on rare earths, precious metals, etc. required for the production of vehicles and chips. Although the buying interest of the consumer side has not shrunk significantly, the lack of cars will still be a problem. The biggest problem in Taiwan's year of the tiger car market.

The relative advantage of domestic cars is still stable

In December last year, after domestic cars hit the 60% market share threshold (62.8:37.2), which is a rare occurrence in recent years, although the proportion fell to 56:44 in January this year, imported new cars arrived in Hong Kong to take advantage of the "good luck" that was delivered before the year. The tradition remains unchanged, but the supplier factor still dominates the delivery schedule and other issues, and the most affected is Ford Liuhe. Typhoon Rey, which hit the Philippines at the end of last year, disrupted the supply chain of Focus and Kuga components. The most serious result is that the number of Kuga vehicles listed has dropped by 53.8% compared with the previous month, and the Focus vehicle series has also dropped by 27.2% compared with the previous month. As a result, Kuga immediately Falling out of the top ten best-selling car series (TOP 10) in January, of course, also made Ford from the top three brands before, and became the top 7 in January. But fortunately, there are many new models of sports SUVs and hatchbacks. After receiving orders for pre-sale last year, Honda Fit repaired the suggested price of gasoline and electric models under a record-breaking record for Honda in Taiwan, making the new car listed for the first time exceeding 1,128 units (1,128 units). ), which also brought Taiwan's Honda listing back to the 3,000-unit threshold (3,024 units), while making up for the embarrassing situation of the current HR-V (171 units) being sold out.

Another interesting performance is the new-generation Hyundai Tucson L, which is listed with a suggested price that makes RAV4, CR-V, Kuga and other rivals highly prepared for battle, combined with the standard Level 2 driver assistance system and full digital instrumentation of the whole car series After waiting for the luxury technology and the upgrade of the car (Sanyang Industry put into production the long-axle version for the first time!), together with the original model (55 cars), 753 cars were listed in one go, becoming the domestic medium and large SUV class after the CR-V. The second runner-up, together with the Venue (468 units), continued to maintain stable sales, not only making Hyundai the eighth largest brand (Top 8) in the total market, but also increasing by 23.9% compared to January last year. Next, Tucson L is also preparing to release a 2.0L entry model aimed at the heartland of the Corolla Cross price, as well as a new hybrid car with the same configuration as the Santa Fe HEV turbo gasoline model, plus a variety of imported recreational vehicles such as Staria With the wheels on the line, 2022 is very likely to be a key year for the Hyundai brand to turn over.

New energy regulations on the road to change car buying preferences

Although Tesla only listed one Model 3 new car in January because the vehicle did not arrive in Hong Kong, the "CAFE weighted average fuel economy of the whole plant" fuel consumption standard, which will be implemented on New Year's Day in 2022, will definitely have a considerable impact on Chinese people's car buying behavior in the future. Regulations On the road, it will have varying degrees of impact on various brands.

Leaving Tesla aside, have you noticed that after Taiwan's Honda significantly lowered the price of its e:HEV gasoline-electric models, it not only listed more than 1,000 cars in January, but even threatened the king of hatchbacks (Yaris listed 1,309 units) , and e:HEV (781 units) accounted for more than 69.2% of the listings - almost 70% of the entire car series, which not only set a record in the domestic car industry (the gasoline and electric models accounted for the highest proportion, even the market leader could not do it! ), of course, you can say that the price difference between Fit gasoline and fuel is only 50,000 yuan, which is also the most Buddhist record, but obviously in addition to attracting Chinese people to buy more gasoline and trams, the future of the new CAFE law will involve the issuance of certificates for various brands ( It's not just commercial vehicles anymore!).

Another more powerful example is nothing more than the most powerful turnaround champion of the premium brand this month-Taiwan Audi (585 units), relying on its various pure electric new cars (e-tron, e-tron Sportback, e-tron GT, RS e-tron GT), and even set a record of winning over Porsche (526 units) for the first time in recent years. Perhaps the average consumer has not yet felt its power, but Audi created a 735.7% increase in listing growth performance in January compared to the previous month. The "flea" level has become a champion. With the continuous reports of a variety of new energy new cars this year, 2022 will definitely be a key year for policies to change car buying preferences.

Supply chain instability affects the progress of imported vehicles

Although the proportion of imported car listings in January 2021 is significantly higher than that of the previous month, it can be seen that the epidemic factor and chip shortage are definitely negative factors affecting the performance of imported cars. The peak of cars can be said to be the most powerful stage of traditionally imported cars, which can be found in many changes in the ranking of imported car brands.

Among them, the brands with the deepest declines last month were Suzuki (-72.6%), Ford (-64.6%), Peugeot (-45.8%), Volvo (-42.5%), Honda (-40.9%), Hyundai (-39.9%) %), and the worst is of course not even in the Top 20 best-selling rankings, which is the Subaru (-85.4%) with only 84 units listed.

Of course, there are also many outstanding players, such as Lexus (+150.3%), Audi (+735.7%), Mercdes-Benz (+93.2%), BMW (+63.1%), Volkswagen (+66.0%), Land Rover (+93.2%) +72.8%) and so on, but it can be seen that the performance of high-end brands in January was better than that of general brands, which further proves that in the post-epidemic period, due to the great changes brought about by global political and economic factors, and the closer the election is to fight for housing The stronger the force, and other factors such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, in Taiwan, where the epidemic situation is relatively stable, hot money still has nowhere to go, and the number of high-end brands listed has increased by 58.6% over the previous month.

Electric vehicles will definitely make great profits in the Year of the Tiger

Although Tesla did not arrive in Hong Kong in January, only one Model 3 was delivered, and even Elon Musk announced that due to insufficient production of raw materials, chips and batteries, he officially announced that there would be no new cars to be released this year. However, for the domestic electric vehicle market This year is sure to be a year of blooming flowers.

On the surface, only 214 electric vehicles were listed in January, and the total market share is halved. It seems that there is no clue, but in the ranking list of the number of electric vehicles listed, there are as many as 10 major brands and 15 new cars on the list. , as long as Tesla arrives in Hong Kong, I believe that this month will be the time when the proportion of electric vehicles will explode, and brands that may not have been seen in the past will appear one after another. As for the public charging piles related to the penetration rate, although the government does not build them, don't forget that before the end of the year, Yulon Group's Yudian Energy will have a total of 5,000 public charging piles in use. Charging piles will be put in place one after another, and the world's only public charging piles with the largest number of specifications (including TPC Tesla specifications), no matter whether you think it is exaggerated or not, these public facilities will be put in place one after another, which will solve the biggest pain in the popularization of electric vehicles. Point - charging convenience.

Of course, in addition to Audi's listing of 101 vehicles, setting the record for the highest single-month listing of electric vehicles of brands other than Tesla, Porsche also has 77 vehicles in the same group. Hyundai Kona, which has the best energy consumption performance among general brands, has also been listed as a new car since last year. 73 vehicles. Next, the Hyundai Ioniq 5 and the Kia EV6, which claims to have the shortest charging time across the United States, will also be on the field, and the Mini Cooper SE will also be delivered. . .

However, this year, electric vehicles are going to explode. In fact, there is still an external factor full of variables, that is, the impact of the supply chain disruption of key raw materials for electric vehicles after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. This part is not expected to be only electric vehicles. Even the chip shortage may not end in continuation.

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