[車市分析] Hidden business opportunities under the chaotic changes of the epidemic war!

According to statistics, in March this year, the number of new vehicles listed in the domestic market was 39,442, an increase of 62.5% over February and a decrease of 8.7% over March last year. ) decreased by 14.2%. In the whole month, 23,656 new domestic vehicles were listed and 15,786 imported vehicles were listed. The domestic/import ratio was 60:40, and the cumulative domestic/import ratio from January to March was 58:42.

The epidemic and war are mixed with the world, and it is difficult to stay out of the situation

Due to the rapid increase in the global vaccination coverage rate, even China has also accelerated the delivery of the third dose of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, but because countries in Asia include China, Hong Kong, Vietnam and other countries, the anti-epidemic policies adopted by countries are very different. The impact on the automotive supply chain varies to varying degrees. Because China has the largest single market, the authorities have decided to continue to dynamically clear the policy. The biggest wave is nothing more than the sudden decision to block Shanghai in April. In March, due to the resurgence of the epidemic in other major provinces and cities in the country, from basic components, logistics and transportation, to the world's largest Shanghai Yangshan Port, both exports and imports experienced traffic jams/ports. Although these have a small impact on domestic imported cars, some domestic cars still rely on low- and medium-level components exported from re-exports. It is expected that the impact of Shanghai's closure in April will be intensified. Shanghai is like the eye of a typhoon, hard-sealed On the one hand, the impact has expanded to surrounding satellite cities (such as Kunshan, Suzhou, Hangzhou, etc., where Taiwanese businessmen gather, covering East China such as Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province, etc.), and before everyone thought that imported cars were affected by the chip shortage, in fact, It will also affect the supply of some components of domestic cars, especially for cars with a higher proportion of Level 2 semi-autonomous driving assistance systems and ADAS components, the degree of impact will gradually increase, so we can see imported cars in March. Compared with the previous month, the number of listings has increased by 55.9%, but compared with the same period last year, there has been a decline of 20.2%. At present, the global auto industry can hardly avoid the supply chain problem caused by the epidemic in China. The suspension of work will of course also affect transportation and logistics; the CCP government's determination to clear the epidemic will of course also affect the willingness of logistics drivers to go to the closed cities. Therefore, although the imported cars you bought are exported from Japan, South Korea, and Europe, China is the world's factory. The impact of the epidemic will definitely delay the production and delivery schedule. Except for Subaru, Japanese car manufacturers still insist that most components are sold in Japan. Manufacturing, but on the one hand Toyota holds shares and is eager to increase its electrification level, and at the same time hopes to reduce production costs through the integration of group resources. In short, wherever Omicron floats and where the epidemic increases, it will affect vehicle production. , even if it is difficult to stay out of the high-end imported cars.

In addition, since the beginning of the year, although the epidemic situation in Japan and South Korea is due to the government's adoption of a more flexible coexistence strategy, because the new crown pneumonia epidemic has entered its third year, the epidemic prevention fatigue has continued to expand. Several Japanese car manufacturers such as Toyota Group Its Hino commercial vehicles, Mitsubishi Motors, etc., were ordered to suspend production by the Japanese government due to the scandal of energy consumption fraud. Another disaster is not alone. The 316 earthquake once again hit the component supply chain. As early as the beginning of the year, Toyota first announced a plan to reduce production by taking precautions. At present, this plan has even extended to April-June (the global production is expected to be revised down by 17% in March alone), such as selling in the domestic imported car market. The Toyota RAV4, Lexus NX, etc. are all among the shutdown storms. From the end of last year to the beginning of this year, the chip shortage that was difficult to avoid in the global auto industry has temporarily eased hopeless, and the 316 earthquake has even affected many Japanese car manufacturers rely on chip manufacturers. Renesas Electronics Corp. has also stopped work many times (the earthquake last year forced the relationship, and then there was a fire, and now there is a 316 earthquake....), and the situation that many imported car quotations are not accepted, I am afraid it will continue. go down.

I believe everyone can understand why, apart from Hetai’s target of selling 10,000 units of the new Lexus NX per year, the number of new vehicles listed in March was less than 1,000 units (947 units), and the Tesla Model 3, which just happened to be delivered in Hong Kong, was sold. (1,633 units), and the RAV4 (1,873 units) that killed Corolla Altis for the first time last year, which has won the status of Taiwan's god car for many years. It is 6.9% lower than last year. Not only Lexus NX was absent from the top ten best-selling list in March, but even Toyota had only 4 models on the list. Today’s new car, the Corolla Cross, still ranks firmly with 3,457 listings. The single-month sales champion, but only 9,555 units were listed from January to March, down 23.8% from the same period last year (12,542 units).

Just because of the lack of materials, there are more than one depot owner. The super typhoon hit the Philippines at the end of last year, and the damage to its supply chain has not been resolved so far. Then the epidemic broke out in China, and the disaster was more seamless. Therefore, although Ford Liuhe ranked in the top 4 in March, it was also partly out of stock because of the Kuga. Except for the number of listings in a single month, it almost fell out of the top ten best-selling vehicles (1,245 vehicles, and a small loss to the top-selling car series). 9 Nissan Kicks), a total of 2,515 vehicles were listed from January to March, a decrease of 31.2% compared with the same period last year. Ford still relied on Focus in June and March (ranked with 1,340 vehicles, Top 8 best-selling vehicles in March), and 1- The 3,039 vehicles in March were also up 3% from a year earlier.

The battle for small fortune has officially entered the tug-of-war stage

At the end of 2021, the market leader has successfully created a new car to dominate the domestic car scene. From pre-sale to listing, the fortune ace Town Ace has been a good show, and it is a wonderful move, in order to challenge Zhonghua Automobile for many years. The dominance of domestic light commercial vehicles has a full 23 working days in March. In addition, it can also digest the massive orders of 6,000 to 6,000 pieces claimed by the industry. As a result, the data in March came out, the transcript was announced, and Lingli listed a new car in March. (1,509 vehicles including vans) increased by 51.9% compared with February. If you only look at trucks, Lingli trucks are listed with 1,032 vehicles, which is indeed a small loss to Town Ace 52 vehicles.

From another point of view, the domestic new car market has grown significantly from 1,525 in February to 2,410 minivans (≦2.5 tons, including DFSK Dawenfa/Jinwenfa and SUZUKI Carry) in March. March (1559 units) grew by 54.6% in one go. Therefore, in addition to challenging existing opponents, Town Ace is a good thing for all industries that support Taiwan's economic development. It can only be said that the total market in March fell by 8.7% compared with the same period last year, or it fell by 14.2% from January to March. Cars may be purchased due to the impact of epidemic prevention, coupled with the shortage of chips and supply shortages of suppliers, and the global impact of the closure of Shanghai on the world's largest port (Shanghai Yangshan Port) and local transportation, distribution, and customs declaration, resulting in Delayed delivery of vehicles, or even more consumer disputes caused by consumers' unsubscription and change of orders, as long as the epidemic is not over, pan-light commercial vehicles (≦3.5 tons) within one million will be the unsung heroes supporting the growth of the auto market. .

This point may be difficult for readers to feel, but with the epidemic in China due to the super infectious power of Omicron, the current home isolation (the number of people living in isolation in Taipei City in April exceeded 60,000!) and related policies are still fluctuating (it seems to coexist Replacing zero), even if it is estimated that the epidemic situation may stabilize in the second quarter, after nearly three years of baptism, changes in national consumption habits (the proportion of online shopping and distribution has increased significantly), and even the outbreak of cold chain demand for small commercial vehicles, etc. , whether it is a domestic or imported light commercial vehicle (domestic Xiaobawang vs. imported Kavan, domestically produced Xiaofacai vs. imported Suzuki Carry, Caddy Van....), etc., Citroen, which has a very low reputation in the domestic market in March alone Berlingo Van (the only French three-seater van within one million listed with 8 units), and the Crafter, a 3-seater van, 9-seater medium and large, which sells for more than 2 million. Passenger cars, a total of 11 were listed), it can be seen that the epidemic has also had an unprecedented impact on the automobile consumer market.

Tesla's large number of deliveries lead the year of the Tiger electric vehicle flipping trend

In addition to the dramatic reversal of the war that Putin originally hoped for a quick solution, even if the US military does not participate in the war, from the sanctions to the continued assistance of various countries to Ukraine, it can be seen that this will be a milestone in human history. The oldest U.S. president in office, Biden, can be said to be wily and has become Putin's biggest nemesis; while Elon Musk, the world's richest man (who is already preparing to fully acquire Twitter!), made a big move with the Starlink plan (Starlink) combined with low orbit The satellite's success in assisting the Ukrainian army in combat, as well as the recent completion of the Berlin plant and the Dezhou plant, etc., are not only of great help to Tesla's annual output of electric vehicles reaching one million units, but also cleverly cooperated with the Chinese government to implement the closed-loop Shanghai plant. The resumption of production can only be envied in the eyes of major traditional car manufacturers.

Closer to home, March is the month when Tesla arrives in Hong Kong to deliver cars this year. Although the original factory continues to increase the price (this year, the price increase seems to become the norm), it still does not damage Musk's personal charm, and in the Ukrainian city that has not stopped. In the Russian war, in addition to using Starlink to assist the Ukrainian army, Elon Musk personally thinks that Tesla can get the most benefit without spending money on advertising (crooked building?). Returning to the domestic auto market, the Model 3 was listed on 1,633 units in the whole month, and once again won the king of electric cars and premium cars, and even completely beat the RAV4 (1,528 units) that won the annual sales championship for the first time last year, leading the number of listings to 105. LEXUS NX (947 units), a new-generation LSUV expected to become the king of luxury cars, was kicked out of the top ten best-sellers at the same time. It has been on sale since the fourth quarter of last year. The vehicle threshold, but don’t forget, we mentioned above that the Toyota Group is constantly downgrading and bad luck. Although Toyota bZ4X was officially released on May 17, there will be a large influx of global orders in the short term, but the domestic market will definitely not be able to follow the schedule. Classes, delivery on time. And don't forget that apart from Tesla's popularity, Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6, which have set a record of orders received by Korean auto brands in Taiwan, have received more than 1,300 orders. If you can focus on the brand image, the real outbreak period is coming, and the Year of the Tiger is definitely hopeless.

However, looking at the domestic electric vehicle listing data in March, it is not difficult to find that this year will definitely be the first year of the big outbreak, except for the Model 3, which can win nearly 90% of the month's electric vehicles with 1,633 vehicles and a single vehicle series (86.8 %), other brands are not fuel-efficient lamps, the Porsche Taycan family has also listed 108 new vehicles, Volvo XC40 Recharge (60 vehicles) a large number of new cars arrived in Hong Kong and immediately rushed to the third place of the electric vehicle brand in March, although Audi temporarily It gave up the third place of the original brand, but in April, new cars such as the e-tron S/S Sportback were released one after another, and 21 Lexus UX300e were also listed (the cumulative number of listed vehicles since the release was 76). I think Taiwan Mercedes-Benz will take a breath We will also announce new cars including EQE, EQB, EQA, etc., as well as more than 1,000 orders from Korean brands waiting to be digested, etc. Just look at the total market share of electric vehicles in March, the highest this year (4.8%, the previous month). 2.7%), compared with the situation of only 1.6% in the whole year of last year, no matter how the epidemic situation, war interferes, and public charging stations, energy storage layout, etc. continue to occupy the media space, the National Development Council released the 2050 Taiwan Net The zero-emission strategy and overall path, etc., the government and investment intentions will continue to promote changes in the fields of electric vehicles and new energy.